Text/Hong Xiaochun
July 6th marks the 11th solar term of this year - Xiaoshu.
Suddenly the warm wind arrives, following the slight summer heat. After experiencing the "dormant period" at the beginning of the new year, the entire home building materials industry has gradually returned to normal. Ceramic companies such as Gold Medal Asia, HSBC Group, and Champion have begun to hold dealer conferences one after another. The two major exhibitions related to the ceramic industry - Construction Expo and Tanzhou Exhibition are also held in July... A series of actions show that they have been dormant for a long time. The ceramic people are about to start showing off their skills.
The bamboos are noisy and the rain is heard first, and the mountains are dark and thunder is heard. The end of June means that the fierce battle in the second half of 2020 is about to begin. In the review of the first half of the year, we can feel the dedication and efforts of the ceramic people; in order to hand in a satisfactory answer in the second half of the year, they will maintain a state of "preparing for the college entrance examination" from this moment on. There may be bigger waves and thunderstorms ahead, but the ceramic people still move forward with faith and courage.
The highlights of this issue include a large number of data reviews for the first half of the year. Next, let us review the industry situation and explore development hopes.
Behind the real estate crisis is an opportunity
"Recently, with the release of the real estate sales rankings for the first half of the year, the current situation of the real estate industry that is displayed in front of everyone also includes the rising concentration of real estate companies, the increasing popularity of land auctions in various places, and the rapid development of finely decorated houses... It can be seen that in After experiencing pain, the real estate industry has finally ushered in its own spring, and the construction and ceramics industry, which is closely related to it, may once again reap growth in market size. ”
The sales target of some real estate companies in the first half of 2020Bid completion rate
Data source: corporate public information and reports, CREIS middle index data
Focus: 228 real estate companies went bankrupt in the first half of 2020
The People's Court Announcement Website shows that as of June 30 this year, the number of bankruptcies of real estate companies has reached 228, most of which are small and medium-sized real estate companies in third- and fourth-tier cities.
Analysis: Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that compared with the number of 100,000-level real estate companies, there were 228 real estate companies in half a year There is no need to panic about bankruptcy, and these bankrupt companies are not mainstream real estate companies.
Focus: The number of fully furnished houses opened soared by 22.1%
According to statistics from Aowei Cloud, a total of 218 residential hardcover projects were launched in China in May, totaling 164.3 thousand units, a month-on-month increase of 22.1%.
Analysis:As the epidemic situation improves, the overall market for residential fine decoration showed obvious signs of recovery in May 2020. The growth in the opening of finely decorated houses, aside from the retail market for ceramic tiles, is another manifestation of demand for the ceramic industry.
Focus: The competition for land acquisition among real estate companies is fierce
Public information shows that Wuhan originally planned to sell 10 land parcels on June 30, with a one-day investment of 24.4 billion, attracting 24 real estate companies including Poly, Excellence, Zhengshang, China Overseas, Blu-ray, and Zhenro to compete. According to statistics, from January to June 2020, the total land acquisition by the TOP100 companies was 1.51698 billion yuan, and the scale of land acquisition is very impressive.
Analysis: More than half of real estate companies acquired land from January to June, not losing to last year(The average monthly land acquisition value of the 50 representative real estate companies from January to June was 171.63 billion yuan), and the sales ratio also increased significantly(The land acquisition to sales ratio of the 50 representative real estate companies is 38.3%). Various signs indicate that the real estate boom has picked up.
Xie Yuezeng, general manager of Guangdong Marco Polo Ceramics Co., Ltd. recently expressed his views on this at the press conference of the 2020 Tanzhou Ceramics Exhibition: “In the entire real estate market this year, no major real estate company has lowered its price. The annual growth target set at the beginning of the year has only been raised quietly. As can be seen from the current land auctions across the country, the building materials industry and the real estate industry are closely related. The current situation of the real estate will drive the building materials industry. The overall market will not be bad this year. As long as the house is renovated, it is just a matter of one or two months early or one or two months late. The total market volume has not changed."
All parties encourage enterprise technological innovation
"Not long ago, the author once wrote an article "Why the Environmental Protection Road of the Building Ceramics Industry Is Getting More and more Difficult" regarding the phenomenon of industry environmental protection rectification: Although the road of environmental protection of the building ceramics industry is becoming more and more difficult, the building ceramics industry The road to green, intelligent and sustainable development is getting wider and wider. The continuous innovation and breakthroughs in the production technology of the following companies are the best proof! ”
Focus: Qingyuan distributed more than 7 million yuan in bonus funds to ceramic enterprises
On July 1, the Qingyuan Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the second batch of fund arrangements for the post-event rewards and subsidies (inclusive) for Qingyuan Industrial Enterprise Technology Transformation Project in 2020.
Analysis: Since this year, Qingyuan has issued many similar incentive notices, such as the promotion of coal production when resuming work and production at the beginning of the year. For the gas modification work, each company will receive a one-time subsidy of 500,000 yuan; this time, a huge amount of money has been spent on the rewards and subsidies for the company's technological transformation. The relevant person in charge of the Qingcheng District Economic and Information Bureau said that through policy guidance, enterprises have become more and more enthusiastic in carrying out technological transformation, and the added value and quality of products have been significantly improved. At the same time, on the basis of adhering to green development, productivity has been effectively developed.
Focus: Four ceramic companies in Hebei production areas were ordered to eliminate equipment
On June 30, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the results of follow-up inspections and treatment measures for the implementation of energy-saving supervision and rectification of coal-fired power generation enterprises and ceramic enterprises in 2019. According to the report, 50 ceramic companies have completed rectifications on schedule, 7 ceramic companies have suspended their units and stopped production, and 4 ceramic companies have not completed rectifications.
Analysis:The four ceramic companies that applied for a deferment of rectification were ordered to stop using energy-consuming equipment that the state ordered to phase out for 3 months. Replace the high-efficiency and energy-saving motor inside. After three months, whether to follow the footsteps of the 7 ceramic companies that have stopped production, or to take the last train of the 50 ceramic companies that have completed the rectification, all depends on their own choices; but what is certain is that the only way to "eliminate" backward production capacity is in the end ending.
Focus: Ceramic enterprises dominate the building materials industry as "advanced collectives and model workers"
Recently, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the China Building Materials Federation jointly issued the "Decision on Commending Advanced Groups and Individuals in the National Building Materials Industry." Among them, a total of 8 companies in Guangdong Province including Weimei Ceramics, Foshan Ceramics Research Institute, Sitong Co., Ltd., and Samit Ceramics won the title of "National Advanced Group in Building Materials Industry". Xie Zhijun, General Manager of Mona Lisa Group Production Technology Center, Weimei Ceramics R&D Supervisor Zhao Yang and other 6 people were awarded the title of "National Model Worker in the Building Materials Industry".
Analysis: Technology is the foundation of enterprise development and the driving force for industry development. The "National Advanced Collective in the Building Materials Industry" is a high degree of recognition by relevant departments for enterprises that play a role in promoting the production of building materials industry; while the "National Model Worker in the Building Materials Industry" is the best encouragement for front-line production technicians to persist in innovation.
In recent years, the informatization, digitalization, intelligence, and greening of the building ceramics industry have accelerated significantly. Enterprises transform and upgrade existing facilities, process conditions and production services through information applications, intelligent transformation, and new technologies, new processes, new equipment, and new materials to accelerate the construction of new advanced productivity, which is conducive to promoting the green development of the industry; On the contrary, those with backward production capacity must face the cruel reality of survival of the fittest.
The ceramics and home building materials industries are dying
“The economic situation affects the trend of the home building materials industry, and the trend of the home building materials industry affects the development of the ceramics industry. Therefore, the ceramics industry is a link in the home building materials industry chain and cannot be isolated; the home building materials industry is in the global economy. More often than not, the lips are dead and the teeth are cold.”
Focus: Building materials industry output, ex-factory price, economic benefits, import and export amounts
A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the output, ex-factory price, economic benefits, import and export of the building materials industry from January to May 2020.
Analysis:The decline in the output of major products in the building materials industry continues to narrow; the ex-factory prices of building materials and non-metallic mineral products have declined (5 The monthly ex-factory price index for building materials and non-metallic minerals is 113.2, down 0.7% year-on-year); the economic benefits of the building materials industry continue to narrow billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%); the import and export value of building materials and non-metallic mineral commodities continued to decline (from January to April, the export value of building materials and non-metallic mineral commodities was US$9.34 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%; the import value was US$5.69 billion, a year-on-year decrease) 23.3%).
Focus: The home furnishing industry may lift the performance pressure warning in the second half of the year
On June 15, data jointly released by the Circulation Industry Development Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Material Circulation Association showed that the national building materials and home furnishing boom index (BHI) in May was 89.13, a year-on-year decrease of 24.12 points; in May, the national building materials and home furnishings above designated size Store sales were 64.721 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.88%. The home furnishing industry has been affected by the epidemic, and competition in the terminal market has intensified significantly. Increased performance pressure has become a major pain point for home furnishing companies.
Analysis:In recent years, the home furnishing industry has shifted from high-speed development to medium-low speed development, and industry profits have dropped significantly. Especially with the promotion of real estate fine decoration, the rise of new retail channels such as decoration and e-commerce, let the industryThe competition in the industry is extremely fierce, and the sudden epidemic in the first half of 2020 has brought a huge impact to the industry. It can be said that the home furnishing industry is facing unprecedented challenges. However, commercial housing transactions and home decoration demand are more rigid needs, which will only be delayed but will not disappear due to the epidemic. A new round of housing delivery peak may occur in the second half of the year, driving the rapid release of home decoration demand.
Focus: Global ceramic consumption is expected to drop by 9.7% in 2020
It is understood that the epidemic has had a major impact on global residential construction investment, which is expected to fall by 10.3% this year, and residential investment is expected to rise by 4.7% by 2021. Global ceramic consumption dropped by 9.7% in 2020 and recovered by 5.2% in 2021. Even so, it is still not enough to make up for the decline in 2020.
Analysis:Behind the decline in global ceramic consumption is the decline of the global economy. According to the latest "Global Economic Prospects" report published by the World Bank, the global economy is expected to decline by 5.2% in 2020, and will resume growth by 4.2% in 2021. Affected by factors such as the possible second wave of the epidemic, tensions caused by trade protectionism, and economic policies adopted in response to the crisis, the prospects of various industries are still unclear.
Although the new coronavirus epidemic has made the global economic situation severe and the industry is in a downturn, the epidemic will eventually be completely defeated by mankind. Prior to this, the ceramic industry should continue to seek breakthroughs in product quality and technology while viewing market changes rationally and actively exploring ways to protect the industry.
After the dust settles, who is the final winner? Let's see the real results in the "examination room"!
Author: Hong Xiaochun
